Why we read the ledger, not the finisher
Goals minus xG looks like a finishing-skill meter. It isn't: almost nobody shoots enough to prove skill, and the models themselves are biased judges — remove 17 deflections and Mahrez's number drops by a third. What the ledger is actually for.
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The ledger and the scoreboard
A match keeps two records: the scoreboard decides who won; the ledger — chances created and allowed — carries what tends to happen next. Three ways to read it, taught through one Sunday: attack meets leak, the total prices the total, and the leaky end.
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The market that won't leave the coin flip
Both teams to score looks like the easiest call in football. We ran 9,982 matches through every pre-match signal — the strongest one moves the outcome nine points. Why BTTS lives beside the coin flip, and how to read its probabilities.
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The problem at Spurs was never the striker
Losing Kane didn't sink Tottenham — the first season without him was their best attacking year. What sank them was a creation network dismantled in two years, player by player.
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Two titles, two different teams
PSG won back-to-back Champions Leagues — but the numbers say the two were won differently: one on chance quality, one on conversion. 34 matches of xG, read match by match.
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What is xG?
Every shot has a chance. A penalty scores 79% of the time; from outside the box, about 4%. Add up every shot’s chance — that’s xG. And it wasn’t invented in football.
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